Petrol Is Back Above $2. Here Is What the Excise Restoration Does to the EV Numbers

In March, with petrol at $2.50 a litre, we ran the numbers on three EV-versus-petrol comparisons and found the case for going electric clearer than most people expected. Then the government cut the fuel excise, prices fell into the $1.60s and $1.70s, and the same arithmetic got a lot less flattering.

That relief is now gone. The full excise came back on 3 August, the Middle East conflict has flared again, and by 9 September the five-city average was 209.9 cents a litre. So we re-ran everything. This post covers what the price did, what the calculator now assumes, and what that does to the EV case in every capital.

What actually happened to the price

Six months of policy and geopolitics, in one table. The pump prices are ACCC daily averages across the five largest cities.

Two things in that table matter for a 15-year decision. The excise itself is now indexed to inflation (that 1.1 cent adjustment on 3 August was the first step), so the tax component only goes up. And the gap between February and September is mostly conflict premium, which can unwind. Both are why the calculator does not simply use today's pump price.

What the calculator assumes now

The calculator's starting petrol price is $2.30 a litre, re-verified against the ACCC's 11 September report. That is a few cents under the city average and well under the regional one, on purpose: it sits below spot while the conflict premium is still unwinding, rather than assuming the spike persists. From there the model escalates petrol at 2.5% a year, which is roughly the excise indexation floor and well under the 14-year average of about 2.9%.

In July the assumption was $1.80, set when relief was in full swing. The 25 cent difference is worth about $220 a year on the default 11,000 km at 8 litres per 100 km, and about $2,200 of profit over 15 years in today's dollars. That is enough to move the EV from one side of the 8% benchmark to the other in most of the country.

The EV case by capital, before and after

Same setup in every city: a typical 3-bedroom home with no solar, a mid-range EV replacing a petrol car when that car reaches the end of its life, costed at the $9,000 premium over an equivalent petrol car rather than the full sticker price, charged at the state's average home tariff. "Profit" is the 15-year saving after the premium, in today's dollars at the 8% hurdle rate.

* Canberra includes the value of the ACT Sustainable Household Scheme's interest-free loan, shown in the calculator as a financing benefit worth about $1,800 on this purchase. The scheme applies to EVs priced under $60,000.

At $1.80 the standalone EV cleared the benchmark in one capital. At $2.05 it clears it in six. Hobart and Brisbane have the strongest cases outside Canberra because their electricity is cheap relative to petrol. Sydney only just makes it, at 36 cents a kilowatt hour. Adelaide, at 43 cents, is the one capital where charging from the grid still does not pay: petrol would need to be about $2.20 before it does.

That Adelaide result comes with a large caveat, and it is the same one that applies everywhere. None of these homes has solar. Once solar is in the picture, much of the charging happens on excess daytime generation that would otherwise be exported for a few cents, and the EV's electricity cost drops sharply. In the calculator's South Australian roadmap the EV lands after solar and a battery and returns about $6,400 of profit, not a loss. If you have or are planning solar, the standalone table above understates your case.

The three cars from March, re-run at $2.05

Our March post compared three EV-and-petrol pairs at $2.50 a litre. Here they are at $2.05, with the same 11,000 km a year, the same 30 cents a kilowatt hour, and the same maintenance assumptions.

The ordering has not changed. The small car is a no-brainer at any plausible petrol price, the mid-size SUV recovers its premium well inside a typical ownership period, and the large family EV is the marginal one. What the excise restoration changed is the margin: at $1.80 the Model Y L took roughly ten years to recover its premium; at $2.05 it is back to eight.

What this means if you are deciding now

Do not buy an EV because petrol spiked this month, and do not rule one out because it might fall next month. The calculator's approach is the sensible one for a 15-year decision: it defers the EV until your current car is actually due for replacement, it starts from a price below today's spot, and it grows that price at the excise indexation floor rather than at the conflict rate.

If your driving is nothing like the default, run it with your own numbers. Annual kilometres, car type and your electricity tariff all matter more than a 25 cent move in petrol. The Under the Hood panel lets you set the petrol price to whatever you believe, so you can see the case at $1.80, $2.05 and $2.50 side by side.

Where these numbers come from

Pump prices and excise history from the ACCC weekly fuel price monitoring report of 11 September 2026. Vehicle prices, efficiency figures and maintenance assumptions as in our March post. Per-city results from the calculator with each state's electricity rates, the default 11,000 km a year at 8 litres per 100 km, an 18 kWh per 100 km EV, a $9,000 mid-range premium and the 8% hurdle rate over 15 years. Full details on the methodology page and the data sources page.