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The Average Opinion on What the Iran Conflict Means for Australian Petrol Prices

9 March 2026 (updated 30 March) · 8 min read

Update: 30 March 2026 (Week 5 of the conflict)

The situation has escalated significantly since this post was first published. Brent crude is now trading above $115/bbl, up from $109 when this post was written. Houthi militants in Yemen have entered the conflict, targeting Red Sea shipping and Saudi energy infrastructure. The US military is reportedly preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran.

The IEA (March 12) called this "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market." The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, shutting in approximately 10 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern production. IEA member countries have released 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, but the IEA described this as a "stop-gap measure." More than 4 million barrels per day of refining capacity has also been shut down.

The US EIA (March 10) has now published its revised forecast:

PeriodBrent (EIA forecast)Est. Australian petrol
Now (March 2026)$115/bbl (spot)$2.50/L
Apr-May 2026>$95/bbl$2.20-2.50/L
Q3 2026 (if conflict resolves)<$80/bbl$1.90-2.10/L
2026 average$79/bbl~$2.10/L
2027 average$64/bbl$1.75-1.90/L

The EIA's forecast assumes the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens. If the conflict persists or escalates further, Brent could stay above $100/bbl indefinitely, keeping Australian petrol at $2.30-2.60/L. Westpac's worst-case scenario (3-month Hormuz closure) projected $185/bbl and petrol above $3.00/L.

The original forecasts below were published in the first week of the conflict. Most have been overtaken by events, but I have left them as a record of how quickly the situation moved. For what an EV saves you at these prices, see our EV vs Petrol comparison.

Sources: US EIA STEO March 2026, IEA Oil Market Report March 2026, Trading Economics (Brent spot $114.64, March 29)

Disclaimer: I am not an energy market analyst, an economist, or a geopolitical expert. I have no special insight into how this conflict will play out. I really cannot overstate how far out of my wheelhouse this is. But what I can do is read what the actual experts are saying, aggregate their forecasts, and present the average of all their opinions. That is all this post does.

Since the US-Israel strikes on Iran on 28 February, Brent crude has jumped from about US$73 to US$109 per barrel. That is a 49% increase in nine days. Australian petrol prices have already moved from roughly A$1.73/L to A$2.00-2.40/L depending on where you live.

The Ohm Equity calculator uses a petrol price assumption to model EV savings. That assumption matters a lot. So I went through every major analyst forecast I could find to figure out where petrol prices are likely headed over the next six months, and what that means for the calculator.

What the experts are forecasting

I looked at forecasts from Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Citigroup, Standard Chartered, Westpac, Allianz, Oxford Economics, and the US EIA. Most published updated forecasts in the first week of March.

SourceBase case (Brent)Escalation case
Goldman SachsUS$76 (Q2), $65 (Q4)$100 if Hormuz closed 5+ weeks
JP MorganUS$60 (pre-war base)$100-120
Morgan StanleyUS$80 avg, then $70, $65Sustained $100+
UBSUS$72 avg$90+
CitigroupUS$62 base, $75 bullish—
Standard CharteredUS$70 avg—
Westpac—$113 (1-mo), $185 (3-mo closure)
AllianzUS$85 peak, $70 year-end$100-130+
Oxford Economics~US$80 (Q2 avg)~$90 (prolonged)
US EIAUS$58 (pre-war forecast)Update due 10 March

All forecasts published between 1-9 March 2026. Full source links at the bottom of this page.

The average across all forecasts

Averaging the base-case forecasts from all ten sources gives a six-month Brent estimate of roughly $80-90 per barrel, up from the pre-conflict consensus of $58-65. That is about a 35-50% increase over what was expected before the strikes.

What that means for Australian petrol

Westpac published the most detailed Australia-specific scenarios:

ScenarioBrent pricePetrol impact
Iranian production onlyUS$100/bbl+A$0.25/L
1-month Hormuz closureUS$113/bbl+A$0.40/L
3-month Hormuz closureUS$185/bbl+A$1.00/L

Averaging across all the forecasts and Westpac's scenarios, the expected petrol price increase over the next six months is roughly A$0.30-0.45 per litre above pre-conflict levels. That puts the six-month average at about A$2.00-2.20/L.

What I have changed in the calculator

Based on the averaged forecasts above, I have updated the default petrol price from A$1.75/L to A$2.00/L (reflecting the lower end of the six-month average estimate across all forecasts).

The long-term escalation rate stays at 2.5% per year. A temporary spike does not change the structural trend. The higher starting price already captures the conflict premium. Note that the same conflict is also putting upward pressure on LNG prices, which flow through to home gas bills. See whether ditching gas makes financial sense in your state.

Both assumptions are visible and adjustable under "Under the Hood" in the calculator. If you think petrol will stay high for longer, increase the price. If you think the conflict will resolve quickly, drop it back to $1.75. The calculator updates instantly.

I will revisit the default price as the situation develops. If prices normalise, I will lower it again.

Sources

Run the calculator with updated prices