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The Iran Conflict and Australian Petrol Prices: What Actually Happened

9 March 2026 · updated 5 May 2026 · 9 min read

Updated 5 May 2026 with post-ceasefire and federal-excise-cut context. The original March forecast post is preserved below as a record of how the conflict looked at the time. Two months on, prices have actually landed close to the lower end of the predicted band, helped by an 8 April ceasefire and a 1 April excise cut. The full update follows.

Update: 5 May 2026 — what actually happened

Two months after the March forecasts in this post, the picture looks like this:

  • Brent crude is around US$110/bbl, down from the $115 spot price quoted in the 30 March update but well above the EIA's "if the conflict resolves" path of under $80.
  • Australian retail petrol is averaging A$2.19-2.31/L nationally per AIP weekly reporting. That sits at the low end of the $2.20-2.50/L band the post forecast for April-May, helped by the federal excise cut on 1 April.
  • An 8 April US-Iran ceasefire has held, with Trump extending it indefinitely on 21 April. Direct attacks have largely stopped since then.
  • The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed under what Al Jazeera describes as a "dual blockade": the US Navy is blockading Iran, Iran is blockading the Persian Gulf in response to ongoing Israeli strikes in Lebanon. Talks have stalled.
  • The ground war never happened. The 30 March update mentioned reports that the US was preparing for weeks of ground operations. Those operations did not eventuate before the April ceasefire took hold.

The 1 April federal fuel excise cut

The single biggest Australia-specific change since this post's last update is the federal fuel excise cut that took effect on 1 April. National retail averages dropped roughly $0.07-0.12/L immediately after the cut — moving from around $2.31/L early April to around $2.19/L late April per AIP weekly reporting. Without the excise cut, prices would still be tracking the post's higher forecast band.

Does the calculator need an update?

The calculator's default petrol price was lifted from $1.75/L to $2.00/L on 9 March and that default still holds. National retail is currently averaging $2.19-2.31/L, so $2.00/L remains a deliberately conservative lower bound. If you want to model your own local pump price, the petrol assumption is editable under "Under the Hood" in the calculator. For the full EV-vs-petrol cost comparison at current prices, see our EV vs Petrol comparison.

Sources for this update: Al Jazeera (1 May 2026, US-Iran ceasefire status); CNBC (21 April 2026, Trump extends ceasefire); CNN (30 April 2026, Day 62 of Middle East conflict); Australian Institute of Petroleum weekly fuel price reports (week ending 26 April 2026); Trading Economics Brent spot (1 May 2026).

Original update: 30 March 2026 (Week 5 of the conflict)

Preserved as a record of the situation in late March, before the April ceasefire and the federal excise cut. Where these forecasts have since been overtaken by events, the May update box above is the current view.

The situation has escalated significantly since this post was first published. Brent crude is now trading above $115/bbl, up from $109 when this post was written. Houthi militants in Yemen have entered the conflict, targeting Red Sea shipping and Saudi energy infrastructure. The US military is reportedly preparing for weeks of ground operations in Iran.

The IEA (March 12) called this "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market." The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, shutting in approximately 10 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern production. IEA member countries have released 400 million barrels from emergency reserves, but the IEA described this as a "stop-gap measure." More than 4 million barrels per day of refining capacity has also been shut down.

The US EIA (March 10) has now published its revised forecast:

PeriodBrent (EIA forecast)Est. Australian petrol
Late March 2026 peak$115/bbl (spot)$2.50/L
Apr-May 2026>$95/bbl$2.20-2.50/L
Q3 2026 (if conflict resolves)<$80/bbl$1.90-2.10/L
2026 average$79/bbl~$2.10/L
2027 average$64/bbl$1.75-1.90/L

How this aged: the late-March $2.50/L spot national average has since softened to $2.19-2.31/L (April 2026), which is at or just below the low end of the Apr-May band the EIA forecast. Brent has held in the $108-115 range through April rather than dropping toward the EIA's "if conflict resolves" sub-$80 path.

The EIA's forecast assumes the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens. If the conflict persists or escalates further, Brent could stay above $100/bbl indefinitely, keeping Australian petrol at $2.30-2.60/L. Westpac's worst-case scenario (3-month Hormuz closure) projected $185/bbl and petrol above $3.00/L.

The original forecasts below were published in the first week of the conflict. Most have been overtaken by events, but I have left them as a record of how quickly the situation moved. For what an EV saves you at these prices, see our EV vs Petrol comparison.

Sources: US EIA STEO March 2026, IEA Oil Market Report March 2026, Trading Economics (Brent spot $114.64, March 29)

Disclaimer: I am not an energy market analyst, an economist, or a geopolitical expert. I have no special insight into how this conflict will play out. I really cannot overstate how far out of my wheelhouse this is. But what I can do is read what the actual experts are saying, aggregate their forecasts, and present the average of all their opinions. That is all this post does. The May 2026 update at the top is a check on how those March forecasts actually played out.

The original March 2026 post

What follows is the post as originally written on 9 March 2026, in the second week of the conflict. The May 2026 update box at the top is the current view; this section is preserved as a record of how the situation looked then.

Since the US-Israel strikes on Iran on 28 February, Brent crude has jumped from about US$73 to US$109 per barrel. That is a 49% increase in nine days. Australian petrol prices have already moved from roughly A$1.73/L to A$2.00-2.40/L depending on where you live.

The Ohm Equity calculator uses a petrol price assumption to model EV savings. That assumption matters a lot. So I went through every major analyst forecast I could find to figure out where petrol prices are likely headed over the next six months, and what that means for the calculator.

What the experts were forecasting (March 2026)

I looked at forecasts from Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Citigroup, Standard Chartered, Westpac, Allianz, Oxford Economics, and the US EIA. Most published updated forecasts in the first week of March.

SourceBase case (Brent)Escalation case
Goldman SachsUS$76 (Q2), $65 (Q4)$100 if Hormuz closed 5+ weeks
JP MorganUS$60 (pre-war base)$100-120
Morgan StanleyUS$80 avg, then $70, $65Sustained $100+
UBSUS$72 avg$90+
CitigroupUS$62 base, $75 bullish—
Standard CharteredUS$70 avg—
Westpac—$113 (1-mo), $185 (3-mo closure)
AllianzUS$85 peak, $70 year-end$100-130+
Oxford Economics~US$80 (Q2 avg)~$90 (prolonged)
US EIAUS$58 (pre-war forecast)Update due 10 March

All forecasts published between 1-9 March 2026. Full source links at the bottom of this page.

The average across all forecasts

Averaging the base-case forecasts from all ten sources gives a six-month Brent estimate of roughly $80-90 per barrel, up from the pre-conflict consensus of $58-65. That is about a 35-50% increase over what was expected before the strikes.

How this aged: actual Brent has tracked above the averaged base case, holding in the $108-115 range through April. The escalation cases (Hormuz closure) ended up closer to reality than the base cases — a reasonable reminder that "average of expert opinion" is not the same as "most likely outcome" when the tail risks are correlated.

What that means for Australian petrol

Westpac published the most detailed Australia-specific scenarios:

ScenarioBrent pricePetrol impact
Iranian production onlyUS$100/bbl+A$0.25/L
1-month Hormuz closureUS$113/bbl+A$0.40/L
3-month Hormuz closureUS$185/bbl+A$1.00/L

Averaging across all the forecasts and Westpac's scenarios, the expected petrol price increase over the next six months is roughly A$0.30-0.45 per litre above pre-conflict levels. That puts the six-month average at about A$2.00-2.20/L.

How this aged: the Westpac 1-month-Hormuz-closure row turned out to be the closest match to reality. Hormuz has been effectively closed for over two months, the +A$0.40/L premium over the pre-conflict A$1.73/L baseline matches the current ~A$2.19/L national average (after the 1 April excise cut helped pull it down from a pre-cut level closer to A$2.31/L).

What I changed in the calculator

Based on the averaged forecasts above, I updated the default petrol price from A$1.75/L to A$2.00/L on 9 March (reflecting the lower end of the six-month average estimate across all forecasts).

The long-term escalation rate stays at 2.5% per year. A temporary spike does not change the structural trend. The higher starting price already captures the conflict premium. Note that the same conflict is also putting upward pressure on LNG prices, which flow through to home gas bills. See whether ditching gas makes financial sense in your state.

Both assumptions are visible and adjustable under "Under the Hood" in the calculator. If you think petrol will stay high for longer, increase the price. If you think the conflict will resolve quickly, drop it back to $1.75. The calculator updates instantly.

Update 5 May 2026: the $2.00/L default still holds. National retail averages are sitting at $2.19-2.31/L, so $2.00/L remains a deliberately conservative lower bound. If prices normalise back below $1.90/L I will lower it again; for now the default stands.

Sources

Run the calculator with updated prices